A rich credit price does not guarantee a rich landfill-gas project. What matters is the cash left after access, processing and risk.
Contents
| Value bridge, per MMBtu sold | Illustrative $/MMBtu |
|---|---|
| Commodity gas receipt | 3 |
| Environmental-attribute proceeds | 17 |
| Gross realized value | 20 |
| Upgrading, compression and delivery | −7 |
| Marketing / monetization / verification | −3 |
| Site share and other operating costs | −4 |
| Before capital, debt, tax and major reserves | 6 |
Follow the dollar to the producer
A high advertised value for transportation RNG can conceal a thin return at the landfill. The producer must collect and upgrade gas, meet a pipeline or delivery specification, document the eligible pathway and monetize the environmental attributes. Each interface can take a fee, a spread or a share of upside.
The table is deliberately illustrative. It does not report current market prices or typical intermediary margins. Its purpose is to show which figures belong in a project model. A $20 gross receipt can coexist with only $6 left before capital and financing.
RNG and electricity use the same gas differently
Converting an LFG electricity operation to RNG changes both the revenue stack and the plant. Engines tolerate a different fuel specification from pipeline injection equipment. Upgrading adds methane recovery losses, power consumption, compression and off-gas handling. Electricity generation may retain value where power pricing, heat use, existing equipment or limited pipeline access favor it.
Compare dollars per unit of collected raw-gas energy first. Comparing RNG dollars per delivered MMBtu with electricity revenue per fuel MMBtu without adjusting methane recovery and parasitic consumption exaggerates the conversion benefit.
Where the policy cycle stands
As of September 29, 2026, EPA has finalized Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2026 and 2027. Its March 2026 action also addresses prior small-refinery exemptions and the 2025 cellulosic requirement. This is a mandated-credit market with policy revisions and compliance rules, not a fixed long-term government purchase price.
Eligible landfill-gas pathways can generate cellulosic credits when the required fuel use and compliance chain are met. Simply producing methane does not establish eligibility or access to the full traded credit value. Evaluate state-program credits separately; geography and pathway-specific conditions matter.
Negotiate the monetization contract as carefully as the upgrader
Specify who owns each attribute, the benchmark used for settlement, fees, timing, working-capital burden, audit rights, invalidation liability and termination rights. Ask for a settlement example covering both high and low credit prices. An intermediary may provide genuine market access and compliance value; the question is whether its compensation matches those services and risks.
We cannot establish that middlemen generally take an excessive share without project-level contracts and costs. We can expose that share in the model. Sensitize credit price, methane recovery, uptime and monetization deductions before paying for an RNG conversion—or selling useful LFG generation equipment.